Over the past 24 hours, the Solana price has shown signs of a turnaround, climbing 1.33%.
Despite its recent corrections and its current period of consolidation, on-chain metrics suggest that the current bull market cycle has not yet reached its peak.
Today’s decisive move has helped Solana secure a 1.79% gain since last Friday, though it still underperforms compared to other major altcoins during the same period.
Indeed, Solana appears to be having a dry spell. The altcoin’s trading volume has plummeted 29.50% to $1.405 million over the past 24 hours.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest the Bull Market Is Only “Halfway” Done
According to CryptoQuant data, the current crypto bull market started about two years ago, based on Bitcoin and altcoin performance trends.
November 2022 was highlighted as a pivotal turning point, as the market saw a robust price recovery by early 2023, signaling that January might have marked the start of a new bull cycle.
Historically, crypto market cycles last around three years, typically ranging from 1,047 to 1,278 days.
Given this historical pattern, the current cycle is about 640 days in, suggesting that the bull market is approximately at its midpoint.
Notably, the Bitcoin halving, which typically triggers significant price surges, took place earlier this year.
What sets this cycle apart is that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high even before the halving, largely fueled by the approval of spot ETFs.
However, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, this cycle’s progression remains consistent with historical trends. He noted that past post-halving rallies have typically started in the fourth quarter (Q4) of each halving year.
Young Ju further emphasized that, in his view, “whales won’t let Q4 be boring with a flat YoY performance,” implying that significant market movements are expected as we approach the end of the year.
Q4 2024 to See Explosive Growth: Here’s Why Solana Stands to Benefit the Most
This trend is of notable significance to Solana, as the outcome of the upcoming November 5th US presidential election has been identified as a crucial factor for price action.
The political leadership that emerges from the election will likely shape the regulatory environment for crypto, either easing the path for ETF approval or imposing further delays.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas commented that, after Cboe reportedly removed its 19b-4 filings for Solana ETFs from its website, they now have a “snowball’s chance in hell of approval.”
However, Balchunas offered a glimmer of hope, citing the US election as the biggest proponent of a Solana ETF approval.
In response to a comment, he noted a “near-zero chance in 2024,” and added that “if Harris wins, there’s probably a near-zero chance in 2025 too. Only hope IMO is if Trump wins.”
A US Solana ETF approval has been forecast to have the potential to drive the price of SOL up 9x, a factor made more credible given a period of growth materializes in Q4 2024.
Meanwhile, the anticipated launch of the two approved Brazil-bases Solana ETFs is also set to bolster price movement in Q4 2024.
A closer look at the Solana chart reveals that it is primed for growth, awaiting a significant catalyst.
SOL / USDT 1D Chart. Source: Binance.As it remains bound in consolidation, trading within a tight range between $137.75 and $146.75, it seems a substantial price catalyst is what Solana needs to see renewed upside.
As the 200EMA (blue) continues to trade sideways, the wider trend is very much neutral. A Solana ETF approval could tip the scales and push it on a new positive trajectory.
Meme Coins Dominate Mirroring Past Bull Market
While altcoins continue to underperform, the CryptoQuant data demonstrated the incredible returns observed among meme coins as another indication of a bull market continuation.
Meme coins are experiencing explosive growth, similar to the phenomenon witnessed during the 2020 bull cycle, where meme coins led the charge.
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