Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggested in a July 9th X post that the outcome of the upcoming presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden could be a deciding factor in the approval of a Solana spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Balchunas called the election the “most important” factor for Solana ETF approval. The election will occur in November, preceding the Solana ETF decision deadline of mid-March 2025.
Looks like Solana ETFs are going to have a final deadline of mid-March 2025. But between now and then the most imp date is in November. If Biden wins, these likely DOA. If Trump wins, anything poss. https://t.co/ywkf6oA8Rc
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 8, 2024
A Biden victory, Balchunas argued, would likely spell doom for the Solana ETFs.
However, he suggested that a Trump presidency might offer a more favorable regulatory environment, potentially increasing the chances of approval.
A June 27 report by crypto market maker GSR Markets predicts that the approval and launch of US spot Solana ETFs could potentially 9x the SOL price.
Solana ETF Decision Set For Mid-March 2025
Solana ETFs are set to receive a decision from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) around mid-March 2025.
This comes after the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) filed two Form 19b-4 applications on July 8 to list VanEck and 21Shares’ proposed ETFs.
In the filing, the CBOE compared the prospective Solana funds to past approved Bitcoin and Ether ETFs.
It highlighted Solana’s decentralization, throughput, and speed as strengths, making it resistant to manipulation that could harm investors. Both filings stated:
“Much like Bitcoin and ETH, the Exchange believes that SOL is resistant to price manipulation and that ‘other means to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices’ exist to justify dispensing with the requisite surveillance sharing agreement”
Source: VanEck Solana Trust Form 19B-4 p.45According to the SEC’s own rules, the agency will have 240 days to decide on Solana ETFs.
This would allow the rule change necessary for CBOE to list the products from VanEck and 21Shares.
ETF analyst Nate Geraci said once the SEC acknowledges the filings, the “decision clock will start ticking.”
Crypto in the 2024 US Election
Elections are now crucial to the future of cryptocurrency. As major jurisdictions emerge as hubs for cryptocurrency development, it is important to establish strong regulatory support for the technology.
One of the most significant is the US. The 2024 election is shaping up to be pivotal in the future of cryptocurrency in the country.
This importance is further underscored by a recent Digital Currency Group poll highlighting cryptocurrency as a major issue for US voters in the upcoming 2024 election.
This is primarily fueled by the contrasting views held by leading candidates. The current Biden administration has displayed a rigorous regulatory standpoint which has been interpreted as hostility by some.
Conversely, the Trump campaign has signaled a more supportive stance, seeking to position the US as a global leader in the cryptocurrency space.
Former United States President Donald Trump is ramping up his crypto support now setting his sights on becoming the “crypto president.”#Trump #Cryptohttps://t.co/hZMyX4CPdu
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) June 10, 2024
During a fundraising event in San Francisco, Trump affirmed his commitment to cryptocurrency, citing himself to be the “crypto president.” He stated:
“Our country must be the leader in the field, there is no second place.”
A 2023 Greyscale survey indicates that US voters want presidential candidates to have an informed perspective on innovative technologies like crypto. This reflects the public consensus for pro-crypto governance.
This strong preference for crypto-friendly policies, combined with the growing number of American cryptocurrency holders, as reported in a 2023 Coinbase study (approximately 20% of adults), suggests that a pro-cryptocurrency stance could be a strategic advantage for candidates in the upcoming election.
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