Bitcoin’s price has fallen to its lowest since late February, with on-chain analysts predicting a further 16% drop to $47,000 as the next bottom. This projection represents a 25% drop from the average purchase price of short-term Bitcoin holders, with significant capitulation expected among new market entrants at this level.
As Bitcoin trades at $56,374, reflecting a 20.73% decline over the past month, analysts note that such pullbacks are overdue. They are reminiscent of past corrections, like the 60% drop during the COVID-19 panic in March 2020.
Also, Joe Burnett, a former Blockware Solutions analyst and senior product marketing manager at Unchained, predicts that Bitcoin market conditions will ease only when the sell-off pressure from Mt. Gox and Germany subsides.
German BTC transfers continue with 1,300 BTC sent to exchanges, likely adding pressure to sell and altering Bitcoin price. What happens next?#Bitcoin #BTC #Germanyhttps://t.co/9LmTNOPU3U
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 4, 2024
The crypto market faces significant headwinds due to the anticipated Bitcoin sell-offs from these entities. Germany recently transferred 3,000 BTC to various exchanges and still holds 40,359 BTC, while Mt. Gox has moved $2.7 billion worth of Bitcoin in preparation for a $9 billion payout to creditors.
Mt. Gox, the Japanese Bitcoin exchange that suffered a notorious collapse in 2014, has started distributing repayments to its creditors in the form of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash today.https://t.co/i91B5JyuD2
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) July 5, 2024
This pressure has caused Bitcoin prices to drop to $53,550, their lowest in four months. Burnett suggests that large buyers may stabilize the market once the selling pressure decreases, potentially leading to a price recovery.
Despite these setbacks, analysts remain optimistic that a Trump victory could lead to a significant rally for Bitcoin, potentially reaching $100,000 by Election Day.
According to a July 5 report by the Financial Times, former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is expected to trigger a significant surge in Bitcoin’s value.
Various analysts have noted that the concept of a “Trump trade” is gaining traction among crypto traders due to Trump’s perceived pro-crypto stance and policies.
Trump: The Bitcoin Advocate
Industry leaders are hopeful that a Trump administration, bolstered by a strong Republican presence in Congress, will create a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
Traders also note the impact of the bitcoin basis trade, where hedge funds use borrowed money to bet on the convergence of bitcoin futures and the spot bitcoin ETF, dampening volatility.
As the market searches for the next catalyst, the “Trump trade” idea is gaining traction, especially following recent presidential debates. Industry executives hope that a Trump White House and strong Republican showing in Congress will mean Washington is more amenable to passing clear and favorable crypto regulations.
Manuel Villegas, an analyst at Julius Baer, notes that Trump’s energy policy proposals could benefit crypto mining firms, making it easier to use alternative energy sources for bitcoin mining.
Conversely, Biden’s previous tax propositions on crypto miners, such as a 30% levy, are unlikely under a Trump administration.
Trump’s policies could create a scenario where the government deficit and debt grow so large that the central bank’s primary weapon, interest rate moves, has limited impact. This “fiscal dominance” could push Bitcoin’s price higher, as the cryptocurrency tends to correlate with key US Treasury markers like the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries and break-even rates.
Betting markets like Polymarket have seen substantial wagers on Biden withdrawing from the race, with over $11 million placed on this outcome. If Biden remains in the race, Bitcoin enthusiasts are likely to feel optimistic.
However, Bitcoin’s momentum could stay in the doldrums if Biden withdraws and a new candidate with a competitive edge against Trump steps in.
According to Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, the most likely outcome is that Biden will run. This would increase the probability of Trump winning and push Bitcoin to a fresh all-time high in August, potentially reaching $100,000 by US Election Day.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin Price at a Crossroads: Bearish Sentiment Meets Oversold Signals
Bitcoin’s technical outlook paints a picture of cautious optimism on July 6th. Currently trading at $57,944, a 2.97% increase, the cryptocurrency finds itself below a crucial pivot point of $60,000.
This suggests a bearish bias, with immediate support resting at $56,500. Should this level fail to hold, further declines could see Bitcoin testing subsequent support levels at $52,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Source: TradingViewHowever, all is not lost for the bulls. A break above the $60,000 pivot point could ignite renewed bullish momentum, potentially propelling Bitcoin towards resistance levels at $67,000.
Possible Scenarios
1. Bearish Continuation: Failure to hold above $56,500 could trigger a decline to $52,000 or even lower, supported by bearish indicators like MACD.
2. Potential Rebound: Holding above $56,500 coupled with oversold RSI could entice buying pressure, pushing the price back towards $60,000. Consolidation above this level is crucial for a bullish reversal, potentially leading to a test of $67,000.
Overall Outlook
The coming days are crucial. A breach of the $56,500 support indicates significant downside risk. Conversely, stabilization and increased buying interest could pave the way for a recovery towards $60,000 and beyond.
Short-term: Cautiously bearish, with a focus on key support levels.
Mid-term: Potential for a rebound if oversold conditions attract buyers.
Long-term: Breaking above $60,000 and $67,000 resistance is necessary for sustained bullish momentum.
Pepe Unchained: A New Meme Coin on the Rise
While the cryptocurrency community closely watches Bitcoin’s movements, another crypto project has been making waves.
Pepe Unchained (PEPU), a new meme coin, launched its presale two weeks ago and has already raised over $2 million, demonstrating significant support and enthusiasm from the community.
$2M raised in record time!
Pepe’s blockchain is on fire. Thank you for the incredible support! Get ready for even more exciting developments pic.twitter.com/yQcveiQO1X
— Pepe Unchained (@pepe_unchained) July 2, 2024
Pepe Unchained (PEPU) capitalizes on the popularity of the Pepe meme, which has been a staple of internet culture for years.
The original Pepe coin became one of the top-ranking cryptocurrencies and the third-largest meme coin by market cap. However, Pepe has been crashing recently, making PEPU a better option for most traders.
Pepe Unchained aims to build on this legacy, offering a fresh and exciting alternative in the meme coin market. It also seeks to address the shortcomings of the Ethereum network and position itself as a dominant player in the meme coin space. The project has quickly gained attention, reaching $2 million in its presale and amassing a growing social media following.
With 5.1k followers on X and rapidly moving toward 4k community members, the project is still ongoing, giving investors plenty of time to join and capitalize on the PEPU token hype.
Pepe Unchained has allocated 20% of its total supply of 8 billion PEPU tokens to the presale, ensuring ample opportunity for new investors.
As of the time of writing, the PEPU ICO had raised over $2.4 million out of the $2.7 million soft cap target, with the figure continually growing.
The token is priced at $0.0081288 and can be purchased with ETH, USDT, BNB, or credit/debit cards. Investors are encouraged to act quickly, as another price increase is scheduled soon.
Join the Community
Join the Pepe Unchained community on X and Telegram to stay up-to-date on the latest events and announcements.
To buy $PEPU, visit Pepe Unchained’s website, connect your wallet, and make a purchase using ETH, USDT, or BNB. Bank card payments are also available.
Buy $PEPU now and join the movement to set Pepe loose!
Visit Pepe Unchained Now
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